Social Mood (A very general indicator)

Unfortunately, this is a 'general indicator' as it's impossible to measure!

This is the newspaper indicator.  This doesn't mean you always follow a contrary stance. The crowd is right sometimes and wrong others. "The crowd is right in the trends but wrong at the ends."- Wall Street Saying.

Usually when a market has gone on for a number of years, it's nearing the end when the newspapers start covering it on the front page. Conversely, if they don't cover it and fundamentals or just plain value indicates it returning, then it's the time to buy. When the front page of the newspaper covers your investment for the first time, you don't sell but you do start your countdown as the market has a limited amount of time left say approx. 1 year.  You start watching your containers more closely and look for a parabolic exit.

The media has more effect on people than in the past.  In our casino society, when the newspapers say buy, everyone goes out and buys with cheap credit driving the market higher to a blow-off or parabolic phase.  In the past, this was used as an excuse by the professionals to dump their stock but nowadays they seem to go for the ride as well.

At market bottoms, there should be little coverage.  Some time should have elapsed since the media announced "doom and gloom" articles.

Also, markets tend to ignore bad news when in "bull" mode and good news when in "bear" mode.

Social mood has turned negative on real estate.

See also page on Delusion and Investment Behavior.