Decision Table…Build permanent portfolio 10% GLD, 90% TLT when market presents opportunity

1) Buy TLT when CPI and core CPI starts dropping..and more when oil starts to drop

2) Sell TLT when oil bottoms and CPI flattens

3) Sell TLT when RSI overbought and oil transitioning out of oversold

4) 15wkma SP500 starts to fall …. best for stock market (sell shorts)

5) SP500 Operating E is down Q/Q

6) TLT:SPY ratio shows crossover for switch to GLD

7) BAA interest rates should be rising

8) Buy TLT when Oil container breaks container to downside and Tbills when oil rising

9) Federal Debt Growth rising/falling for 2-3 quarters

As volatility will continue to increase, opportunities will occur at the extremes when market is overbought/oversold.

The T bond sell rule occurs when RSI is oversold (-).  T-bonds are more liquid than options so restrict options to 10% of portfolio. In volatile situations, options have little liquidity.

Investment                     Buy                       Sell Signal Result (Buy/Sell)

T-bills                       45 wk VIX trend +ve                VIX trend -ve Sell

T-bonds                                    RSI +                          RSI – Buy

SP500 Puts (LEAPS)              RSI +                          RSI – Buy

SP500 Calls                             RSI -                           RSI + Sell

Gold                                        RealRates -                  RealRates + Sell

Equities                                   low PE                        high PE Sell

                                                OE +                           OE -  

RSI - RSI +        

OE is SP500 operating earnings % change year over year

PE is SP500 operating earnings price to earnings (last 4Q) ratio

RealRates is 3mo Tbill rate – gross CPI

RSI + is relative strength S&P500 (13 weeks) over 70         

RSI – is relative strength below 30

VIX is volatility index